COVID-19 Information updates

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Yeah I'm not into Doom and Gloom either.
But I know how statistics work and things can multiply exponentially quickly.
Better safe than sorry.

My WW 1 studies had the Spanish Flu and the rest of the direction of the 20th century as it's capstone. To this day I cannot get a handle on the amount of death created from the Spanish Flu. The death toll from that flu is between 30 and 100 million people.
The low number is because British colonialists did not count people from India that died. Africa and South America and Southeast Asia was also written off by most. Gut says high #.
Can't help but add info that I really dug into. I think these actual numbers may be a mess.
 
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Yeah I'm not into Doom and Gloom either.
But I know how statistics work and things can multiply exponentially quickly.
Better safe than sorry.

My WW 1 studies had the Spanish Flu and the rest of the direction of the 20th century as it's capstone. To this day I cannot get a handle on the amount of death created from the Spanish Flu. The death toll from that flu is between 30 and 100 million people.
The low number is because British colonialists did not count people from India that died. Africa and South America and Southeast Asia was also written off by most. Gut says high #.
Can't help but add info that I really dug into. I think these actual numbers may be a mess.
Currently, this new flu has a fatality rate running that of the Spanish flu. That's a bit scary all by itself. The newest headline is:

'NOBODY CAN LEAVE'
 
The coronavirus has a current mortality rate in the area of 2%. that doesn't sound bad until you realize that it has the potential to infect a billion people. Spanish influenza infected 500 million and killed easily 100 million though as mentioned it is often said to be lower because of the way it was reported and counted. It the time of the Spanish flu outbreak people didn't travel as much as they do now and that travel was much slower.

The Spanish flu mostly killed in Europe and in the American troops going and coming from there. This has the potential of going global and then spreading to almost every corner. If it infected only 20% of the population of the world the death count would be devastating in the area of 150 million deaths. This is going to overwhelm the medical abilities of all nations and that will mean an even higher mortality rate. Like most flu the mortality is via pneumonia type lung issues and without hospitalization, I can't guess what the mortality rate might be.

I am going to beef up my pantry some more and try to have all the other things that I would need to hold up for a couple of months. Even that though probably won't have a lot of effect. My daughter and her family live beside me and my wife and I pick up the baby from school every day and see my kids so they will bring it home if it gets here. In the end, I worry about things that I can change or avoid and accept those things that are inevitable 2% is pretty good odds for most people. I'm a lot like Deb and am compromised so I would have a harder time fighting it but even then I feel that my odds are better than 85% to 90%. Like Deb I have medical people watching over me closely and they will react fast if I am infected. As she mentioned getting on it before it wears you down increases your chance of not having it go to pneumonia and damaging your lungs as badly. If you get sick GO to the Doc immediately.

There is seldom a "cure" for any virus. Once you get it then you have to battle through with it. The only "cure" for any viral infection is via a vaccine and that takes a while especially when they are not even certain where this virus came from. there are some that believe that it may have originated in a snake species that they eat and sell the meat of in China. ??? There have been cases of flu that originated in birds, swine and such but this is the first from a reptile that I have heard of. It may take longer to perfect a viral vaccine than it is going to take this to run its course. Spanish Influenza infected 500 million and killed 20 to 50 million, possibly up to 100 million from some other sources. It never has struck again because the survivors are immune after they recover and those that didn't catch it possibly had natural immunity.

Once they find a way to make a vaccine it will take a long time for enough doses to be made distributed to head off it spreading. Only China might be able to do it with the kind of speed necessary. They have the most casualties and they can do things in ways that people in free states just can't do it. They are building a thousand-bed hospital just for the treatment of people with this disease. They have a start to finish deadline of SIX FREAKING DAYS!!!! You can't even get the paperwork done in the US to propose a construction is less than 6 weeks much less 6 days. They are doing it by putting a truely massive workforce on it working 24 hours a day with anything that they need being a nationwide priority. The construction site looks like an ant bed that you stirred up with a stick! One picture that I saw looked like they had 20 or 30 heavy machinery pieces all working the dirt for the foundation at the same time.

This is Chinese New Year over there. Normally nobody is working. They are paying an insane wage of 170+ dollars a day for skilled workers. If they figure out a way to make a vaccine they will go at it with this same insane way and throw money and a massive work force at it.
 
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VIRUS 'STRENGTHENING'
DEATH TOLL RISES
56 MILLION QUARANTINED
'NOBODY CAN LEAVE'
CASE IN ORANGE COUNTY


OK, so the scariest thing I just read there is the virus is "strengthening". This is implying it's mutated to a stronger level. May I suggest we all put in a few extra things in the pantry? And perhaps buy a box of not so helpful masks but it's at least something? Because I also just read this is undetectable for up to 5 days but can be spread during that time by the infected.

Someone once said the best bioweapon in the world would be akin to the common cold and how it spreads. This one fits that bill.

When the headlines on FOX become this virus instead of political, as it did this morning, my concern level grows. The fatality rate of this has climbed to almost 3%, which is huge.
 
it may have originated in a snake species
Dan, they traced it back to bats. It mutated from there to snakes. Then mutated to infect humans. They have no clue how to deal with this.
 
Jumping species is a challenge but jumping from mammal to reptile and then back to mammal shows an ability to change and mutate that is terrifying. I am afraid that people these days are ill-equipped mentally to deal with something like this. Most have never had to face anything like this.

My generation was the last to live with it. We ALL wear scars on our shoulders from Smallpox vaccinations. I remember polio vaccines when it was the new miracle cure and had kids in my classes that had to wear braces from the damage of it. The elementary school that I went to was new and had been built especially for kids that had braces from polio. All of the halls were lined with grab bars, there were no steps or stairs, only ramps, all the bathrooms were handicap accessible, there was even a special raised bus area so the kids with polio could come right off the buses whether they were in braces or wheelchairs.

Before WW2 yellow fever killed hundreds of thousands of children. My Mother lost a sister to it. At one time syphilis was a leading cause of death among adult males. Now kids don't even have childhood diseases like measles, mumps, whooping cough. I don't think that people now will deal with such things as well as people did that were raised with the possibility of this sort of thing hanging over them. I hope that with all of our vaccines that we now don't find that they have weakened us even as they protected us from individual ailments.

We have had a hundred years now to get soft and think that we were not under the gun anymore. I fear that death has returned to walk among us again. We have defeated so many of the old killers of the past that I think most people these days have no understanding of the true frailty of human life.
 
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Jumping species is a challenge but jumping from mammal to reptile and then back to mammal shows an ability to change and mutate that is terrifying. I am afraid that people these days are ill-equipped mentally to deal with something like this. Most have never had to face anything like this.

My generation was the last to live with it. We ALL wear scars on our shoulders from Smallpox vaccinations. I remember polio vaccines when it was the new miracle cure and had kids in my classes that had to wear braces from the damage of it. The elementary school that I went to was new and had been built especially for kids that had braces from polio. All of the halls were lined with grab bars, there were no steps or stairs, only ramps, all the bathrooms were handicap accessible, there was even a special raised bus area so the kids with polio could come right off the buses whether they were in braces or wheelchairs.

Before WW2 yellow fever killed hundreds of thousands of children. My Mother lost a sister to it. At one time syphilis was a leading cause of death among adult males. Now kids don't even have childhood diseases like measles, mumps, whooping cough. I don't think that people now will deal with such things as well as people did that were raised with the possibility of this sort of thing hanging over them. I hope that with all of our vaccines that we now don't find that they have weakened us even as they protected us from individual ailments.

We have had a hundred years now to get soft and think that we were not under the gun anymore. I fear that death has returned to walk among us again. We have defeated so many of the old killers of the past that I think most people these days have no understanding of the true frailty of human life.
I agree and wear my badge of smallpox vaccine with you.

Even if they can somehow "contain" this outbreak...which I am not at all sure they can....it's now loose in the world. Once out of Pandora's box, unless a vaccine is found, it's out there. It will continue to pop up, and as it's difficult to tell at first what flu/cold it is, it will hit us over and over. The world just got hit with something very dangerous and I don't think people truly understand just how dangerous a virus can be.
 
This is for me and Dan:

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