http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencet...hquake-California-increased-dramatically.html
A new report from the U.S. Geological Survey has warned the risk of 'the big one' hitting California has increased dramatically.
Researchers analysed the latest data from the state's complex system of active geological faults, as well as new methods for translating these data into earthquake likelihoods.
The estimate for the likelihood that California will experience a magnitude 8 or larger earthquake in the next 30 years has increased from about 4.7% to about 7.0%, they say.
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In the new study, the estimate for the likelihood that California will experience a magnitude 8 or larger earthquake in the next 30 years has increased from about 4.7% for UCERF2 to about 7.0% for UCERF3.
THE SAN ANDREAS FAULT
The San Andreas system in Northern California consists of five major branches with an overall length of about 1,25O miles.
Experts say there is a 99 percent chance of a magnitude-6.7 earthquake or larger in the next 30 years in California because of the number of fault lines in the region.
The San Andreas Fault that forms the tectonic boundary between the Pacific Plate and the North American Plate is the biggest.
'We are fortunate that seismic activity in California has been relatively low over the past century,' said Tom Jordan, Director of the Southern California Earthquake Center and a co-author of the study.
'But we know that tectonic forces are continually tightening the springs of the San Andreas fault system, making big quakes inevitable.
'The UCERF3 model provides our leaders and the public with improved information about what to expect, so that we can better prepare.'
The Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, or UCERF3, improves upon previous models by incorporating the latest data on the state's complex system of active geological faults, as well as new methods for translating these data into earthquake likelihoods.
The study confirms many previous findings, sheds new light on how the future earthquakes will likely be distributed across the state and estimates how big those earthquakes might be.
Compared to the previous assessment issued in 2008, UCERF2, the estimated rate of earthquakes around magnitude 6.7, the size of the destructive 1994 Northridge earthquake, has gone down by about 30 percent.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencet...nia-increased-dramatically.html#ixzz3Ycwu8Xg7
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A new report from the U.S. Geological Survey has warned the risk of 'the big one' hitting California has increased dramatically.
Researchers analysed the latest data from the state's complex system of active geological faults, as well as new methods for translating these data into earthquake likelihoods.
The estimate for the likelihood that California will experience a magnitude 8 or larger earthquake in the next 30 years has increased from about 4.7% to about 7.0%, they say.
Scroll down for video
+2
In the new study, the estimate for the likelihood that California will experience a magnitude 8 or larger earthquake in the next 30 years has increased from about 4.7% for UCERF2 to about 7.0% for UCERF3.
THE SAN ANDREAS FAULT
The San Andreas system in Northern California consists of five major branches with an overall length of about 1,25O miles.
Experts say there is a 99 percent chance of a magnitude-6.7 earthquake or larger in the next 30 years in California because of the number of fault lines in the region.
The San Andreas Fault that forms the tectonic boundary between the Pacific Plate and the North American Plate is the biggest.
'We are fortunate that seismic activity in California has been relatively low over the past century,' said Tom Jordan, Director of the Southern California Earthquake Center and a co-author of the study.
'But we know that tectonic forces are continually tightening the springs of the San Andreas fault system, making big quakes inevitable.
'The UCERF3 model provides our leaders and the public with improved information about what to expect, so that we can better prepare.'
The Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, or UCERF3, improves upon previous models by incorporating the latest data on the state's complex system of active geological faults, as well as new methods for translating these data into earthquake likelihoods.
The study confirms many previous findings, sheds new light on how the future earthquakes will likely be distributed across the state and estimates how big those earthquakes might be.
Compared to the previous assessment issued in 2008, UCERF2, the estimated rate of earthquakes around magnitude 6.7, the size of the destructive 1994 Northridge earthquake, has gone down by about 30 percent.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencet...nia-increased-dramatically.html#ixzz3Ycwu8Xg7
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
