Light at the End of the Tunnel of Covid

titch2k6

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On Monday 19th July, the UK will officially end the majority of legislated Covid restrictions for millions following the PM's recent announcement.

However, there are increasing concerns from medical professionals and other groups, including MPs, that this is being done too fast, too early and more concerning, it is believed that the government are looking at pushing a mass infection policy to force herd immunity within the UK.

The prominent Covid infection in the UK is currently the Delta+ variant, a mutation of the India 'Delta' variant. In the past few days, another new strain has been identified in the UK, the Lambda variant, which has appeared in more than two dozen countries, with a heavy concentration in South America. This new strain is even more transmittable than the latest Delta+ variant identified. At this point, as is the case with other variants of this disease, it’s too early to know whether the Lambda strain could be more deadly than others, or whether it’s resistant to our vaccines or treatments.

There were almost 194,000 new cases of Covid-19 reported in England last week, which is a rise of 35% above the week before. At this time, 52% of the UK population have been fully vaccinated. Maybe another 20% have some immunity from one dose of vaccine. If this level of population immunity was enough to contain the pandemic alongside public health measures, cases would be falling. They are not.

Dr Susan Hopkins, the head of PHE (Public Health England), has estimated more than 200,000 cases a day within six weeks’ time. Even the health secretary, Sajid Javid, admits there are likely to be more than 100,000 cases a day, which would be higher than the highest recorded day we had back in January. This could mean that another 2 million British people will be infected before cases return to the low levels we saw in early May.

More than 100 scientists set out why allowing mass infection this summer is a terrible idea in a letter to The Lancet (an independent, international weekly general medical journal) last week. Dr Mike Ryan, the executive director of the WHO health emergencies programme, called such a strategy “moral emptiness and epidemiological stupidity”. Healthcare experts for the People’s Covid Inquiry called it a “very dangerous experiment”. The BMA (British Medical Association), Association of Directors of Public Health, Sage and NHS leaders have all highlighted the danger of allowing mass infection.

But our government has not listened to the medical profession. They are intent on moving forward with their own agenda.

Yes, we are all sick and tired of restrictions and lockdowns. However, until we work towards eradicating the virus to a level that is manageable, and stop the transmission of the disease by allowing the movement of people across other countries, states and cities, we are NOT going to see an end of this pandemic any time soon and at some point, the mutations WILL develop to the point that the current vaccines will no longer help us and we will all be back to 'square one'...........
 
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bluesea

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This says that although more research is needed, which it seems they always say, if you've got both doses of the Pfizer jab then you're probably protected for a good long time. Good news.

Maybe my bad dreams will back off ... eventually.
 

garnetsilver

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This says that although more research is needed, which it seems they always say, if you've got both doses of the Pfizer jab then you're probably protected for a good long time. Good news.

Maybe my bad dreams will back off ... eventually.
I found that vastly reassuring; thanks for posting! I do believe that only time will tell, but so far numbers are looking really good for the state of PA, anyway.
 
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Duke

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I went to the doctor yesterday for the first time in 18 months. In that time my primary care doctor had retired and I had been reassigned to another doctor/practice within the network. This practice was surprisingly large, at least a dozen physicians, PAs, and NPs all in one facility.

Before entering, everyone had to have their temp taken, answer the usual questions about travel/exposure, and don a mask. Everyone was required to wear a mask (staff, patients, those accompanying patients, visiting reps, etc.....no exceptions) regardless of vaccination status before entering and while inside the facility. I heard a couple different people who'd been vaccinated complain as I sat in the waiting room, but everybody I saw in the place (at least 50 people) wore masks.
 

titch2k6

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Taken from the Independent tabloid in relation to the Delta variant - these figures are actually slightly lower for the Delta Plus variant, and as previously stated, the dominant variant out there today:

"But the question of whether the vaccines remain as effective at preventing infection, and therefore transmission and spread, is more fraught.

Early figures from the real-world studies in the UK in May found that two doses of the Pfizer vaccine were 88 per cent effective at preventing symptomatic infection with the Delta variant. A month later, that number was revised down to 79 per cent by Scottish researchers.

Canadian scientists on Saturday, using a combination of methods, estimated that the Pfizer jab was 87 per cent effective at preventing infection with the Delta variant. That was “comparable”, the researchers said, to the 89 per cent protection the shot provided against the Alpha variant, first identified in Britain.

A fourth study, compiled by Israel’s health ministry, details of which were reported this week, suggested the Pfizer vaccine was much less effective against symptomatic infection with Delta, providing only 64 per cent protection. Pfizer and Israeli health officials, however, were quick to caution that the study was based on preliminary and highly localised infection numbers, and had other methodological weaknesses."

With yet another mutated variant now present (Lambda), it is likely that the figures will drop even lower. And it is not just the figures for Pfizer - it is ALL the vaccines. Yes, they do work, but their efficiency against each generation of new strain drops each time. This is because the genetic make-up of the strain is 'learning' about its host (us), modifying its viral protein and becoming more potent, more easily transmittable each time. Once restrictions in the UK are dropped, variants will have an opportune chance to mutate even further, because all common sense, and good judgement, will go out the window.........

Viruses are nasty, yet clever buggers.

I am not a scaremonger, but we have to realise that the rate this virus mutates into new strains is cause for alarm, and I honestly believe that we haven't seen the worse this virus can throw at us yet. I believe this because there is no actual plan, either locally or worldwide, to control it. All we are doing at present is trying to fight against it - not actually control it. Mass infection plans for herd immunity is, I believe, going to backfire on us.

As soon as we get any foothold on the situation, we do something stupid (like relaxing all measures to prevent its spread.........!) and, as previously seen in the past, it will potentially come back and bite us in the arse...........
 

garnetsilver

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That is what makes it so scary; it is basically a new virus that has only been widely known about for a little over a year, if I am correct. We are still learning as we go along.
 
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titch2k6

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I went to the doctor yesterday for the first time in 18 months. In that time my primary care doctor had retired and I had been reassigned to another doctor/practice within the network. This practice was surprisingly large, at least a dozen physicians, PAs, and NPs all in one facility.

Before entering, everyone had to have their temp taken, answer the usual questions about travel/exposure, and don a mask. Everyone was required to wear a mask (staff, patients, those accompanying patients, visiting reps, etc.....no exceptions) regardless of vaccination status before entering and while inside the facility. I heard a couple different people who'd been vaccinated complain as I sat in the waiting room, but everybody I saw in the place (at least 50 people) wore masks.

That is good to know Duke, but I notice that you mention that those who had been vaccinated (or at least some of them) were moaning. Herein lies the problem..........

When there is no requirement to do so legally, not just in the case of masks, but social distancing, pre-entry checks into establishments, etc, etc, how many people do you think are going to actually follow common sense? Especially those who think they are 'immune' because they have been vaccinated?

Unfortunately, it does not actually work like that. As I am sure most of us are aware, you CAN still get the virus, host it, allow it to mutate off your own genomes, and then pass it on to others - some of whom will not actually be vaccinated with even one dose. Before you know it - there's yet another new variant................

I'm just miffed that there appears to be very little concern, or thought, about this by our politicians, despite the recent outcry and warnings by the medical profession.
 
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Duke

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That is good to know Duke, but I notice that you mention that those who had been vaccinated (or at least some of them) were moaning. Herein lies the problem..........

When there is no requirement to do so legally, not just in the case of masks, but social distancing, pre-entry checks into establishments, etc, etc, how many people do you think are going to actually follow common sense? Especially those who think they are 'immune' because they have been vaccinated?

Unfortunately, it does not actually work like that. As I am sure most of us are aware, you CAN still get the virus, host it, allow it to mutate off your own genomes, and then pass it on to others - some of whom will not actually be vaccinated with even one dose. Before you know it - there's yet another new variant................

I'm just miffed that there appears to be very little concern, or thought, about this by our politicians, despite the recent outcry and warnings by the medical profession.
You're preaching to the choir, Vicar. :innocent:
 
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Just a head's up. Even if you are vaxxed, please keep in mind that there are breakthrough cases of the Delta Variant. Cases are rising rapidly of Delta and many younger unvaxed folks are getting it and being hospitalized. They believe it may have a heavier viral load than the earlier versions.

If you are immune compromised or have a chronic illness, your safest bet is to mask up when inside a building with people. Go back to the basics with the handwashing and distance if you are at risk and in the general public.