COVID-19 Information updates

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I have come to the conclusion they really aren't sure about anything anymore. The way it's phrased is it's "unlikely". They are phrasing it this way because they don't have enough studies to state one way or the other and is not the MAIN way it's spread, imo.

"The CDC notes that it may be possible for COVID-19 to spread in other ways, but these are not thought to be the main ways the virus spreads. This conclusion comes primarily from epidemiological data—tracking ways in which the majority of the people that were infected became infected."

Sorry...I know enough about viruses I am not trusting this yet.
 
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I have come to the conclusion they really aren't sure about anything anymore. The way it's phrased is it's "unlikely". They are phrasing it this way because they don't have enough studies to state one way or the other and is not the MAIN way it's spread, imo.

"The CDC notes that it may be possible for COVID-19 to spread in other ways, but these are not thought to be the main ways the virus spreads. This conclusion comes primarily from epidemiological data—tracking ways in which the majority of the people that were infected became infected."

Sorry...I know enough about viruses I am not trusting this yet.

I agree with you. Last night I had a spirited discussion with my daughter, a former cardiac ICU nurse and current SME for a large medical equipment company, along these lines. The discussion centered on the modeling used to predict COVID-19 infection/death rates.
 
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U.S. DEATHS: 94,661.

Hot spots erupt, researchers warn of second wave in South

Dallas, Houston, Southeast Florida’s Gold Coast, the entire state of Alabama and several other places in the South that have been rapidly reopening their economies are in danger of a second wave of coronavirus infections over the next four weeks, according to a research team that uses cellphone data to track social mobility and forecast the trajectory of the pandemic.

The model, developed by PolicyLab at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia and updated Wednesday with new data, suggests that most communities in the United States should be able to avoid a second spike in the near term if residents are careful to maintain social distancing even as businesses open up and restrictions are eased.
 
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One reason I think these statistical models have a problem is you are trying to quantify an unknown moving target. That is a darn near impossible task without any confidence in the results.
2. The thing is mutating.
3. There's a thing in statistics called a confidence interval. You essentially are setting your odds on being right like a horse race.
I suspect that the Doom and Gloom disasterous initial reports were set at a 5% confidence interval. That's like betting on a horse in a hundred and one you're just wasting your money. On the other hand I could set something up with 100% confidence interval. For example the sky is blue and the sun is coming up tomorrow. I know 100% I'm going to be right but I told you nothing. So setting that bar too high or too low are equally essentially useless.

4. But I will bet you that the Press ran with the Doom and Gloom worst case scenario. At a hundred to one odds just to sell rating points.
 
One reason I think these statistical models have a problem is you are trying to quantify an unknown moving target. That is a darn near impossible task without any confidence in the results.
2. The thing is mutating.
3. There's a thing in statistics called a confidence interval. You essentially are setting your odds on being right like a horse race.
I suspect that the Doom and Gloom disasterous initial reports were set at a 5% confidence interval. That's like betting on a horse in a hundred and one you're just wasting your money. On the other hand I could set something up with 100% confidence interval. For example the sky is blue and the sun is coming up tomorrow. I know 100% I'm going to be right but I told you nothing. So setting that bar too high or too low are equally essentially useless.

4. But I will bet you that the Press ran with the Doom and Gloom worst case scenario. At a hundred to one odds just to sell rating points.

All valid points, but all models get more accurate as new historical data (actual results as opposed to projected results based on assumptions which initially usually reflect worst case scenarios) are plowed back into the model.

In the current situation, the very dire COVID-19 model projections did not take social distancing and other government mandated policies into account. Here the worst case was no mitigation efforts. So when all the conspiracy theorists claim this whole thing is overblown and the real world numbers aren't nearly as bad as projected, they fail to mention the effect of mitigation measures many are protesting against.
 
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